SESSIONS - GLOBAL CHANGE AND/OR NATURAL HAZARDS
G1. Modelling of Weather and Climate Extremes and Their Impact in a Changing Climate
Organiser: Bob Cechet and Craig Arthur, Risk and Impact Analysis Group, Geoscience Australia bob.cechet@ga.gov.au
Changes in extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts on society and are among the most serious challenges in coping with a changing climate. IPCC (2007) indicated that many extremes and their associated impacts are now changing. For example, in recent decades most of Australia has been experiencing more unusually hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights, and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions. The power and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes have increased substantially in recent decades, though the global frequency of tropical cyclone's appears to have remained stable.. Outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting polewards and the strongest storms are becoming even stronger. In the future, with continued global warming heat waves, heavy downpours and hail events are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity. Substantial areas of Australia are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. Tropical cyclone wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest cold season storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights. Current and future impacts resulting from these changes depend not only on the changes in extremes, but also on responses by human and natural systems.
Changes in extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts on society and are among the most serious challenges in coping with a changing climate. IPCC (2007) indicated that many extremes and their associated impacts are now changing. For example, in recent decades most of Australia has been experiencing more unusually hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights, and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions. The power and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes have increased substantially in recent decades, though the global frequency of tropical cyclone's appears to have remained stable.. Outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting polewards and the strongest storms are becoming even stronger. In the future, with continued global warming heat waves, heavy downpours and hail events are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity. Substantial areas of Australia are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. Tropical cyclone wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest cold season storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights. Current and future impacts resulting from these changes depend not only on the changes in extremes, but also on responses by human and natural systems.
G2. Climate Change Statistical Methods
Organiser: I L Hudson, University of South Australia (irenelena.hudson@gmail.com)
This session will consider papers on (and also more broadly):
This session will consider papers on (and also more broadly):
- Statistical methods for evidence based evaluation of effects of climate–change in environmental time series and in spatio–temporal maps,
- real time monitoring,
- phenological statistics,
- mapping GIS NVI with phenological series,
- non–parametric smoothing methods (generalised additive models) and fitting Bayesian Markov random fields for spatial regression via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
- the role of statistics in climate research, focusing on statistical methods for identifying the dynamics of the climate system and implications for data collection, forecasting, and climate change detection.
- synchronisation of species and systems.
G3. Modelling and Simulation of Dangerous Phenomena, and Innovative Techniques for Hazard Evaluation, Mapping, and Mitigation Organisers: Giulio IOVINE, (g.iovine@irpi.cnr.it)
Manuel PASTOR, (Manuel.Pastor@cedex.es)
Michael F. SHERIDAN, (mfs@geology.buffalo.edu)
Several types of dangerous phenomena (either natural or man-made) pose serious risk in many parts of the world. Fundamental tasks in hazard evaluation include the prediction of i) the area influenced by the phenomenon, ii) its evolution in space and time, and iii) the understanding of the triggering mechanisms. This section mainly focuses on theoretical and numerical research, especially those supported by computer-assisted techniques of computation. Among the different approaches which might be taken, some mainly focus on the problem of time-sequential movements, by using either physical-based or empirical methods of analysis, while other methods attempt to predict the evolution of a given natural phenomenon. Studies concerning innovative methods of modelling and simulation for hazard mapping and prevention purposes are welcome. Contributions on new techniques of simulation and mapping, case studies, and novel methods of model calibration and validation, as well as on sensitivity analyses, are solicited. Comparative discussions on the potential, and the limits of different modelling approaches, are also within the scope of this session.
Manuel PASTOR, (Manuel.Pastor@cedex.es)
Michael F. SHERIDAN, (mfs@geology.buffalo.edu)
Several types of dangerous phenomena (either natural or man-made) pose serious risk in many parts of the world. Fundamental tasks in hazard evaluation include the prediction of i) the area influenced by the phenomenon, ii) its evolution in space and time, and iii) the understanding of the triggering mechanisms. This section mainly focuses on theoretical and numerical research, especially those supported by computer-assisted techniques of computation. Among the different approaches which might be taken, some mainly focus on the problem of time-sequential movements, by using either physical-based or empirical methods of analysis, while other methods attempt to predict the evolution of a given natural phenomenon. Studies concerning innovative methods of modelling and simulation for hazard mapping and prevention purposes are welcome. Contributions on new techniques of simulation and mapping, case studies, and novel methods of model calibration and validation, as well as on sensitivity analyses, are solicited. Comparative discussions on the potential, and the limits of different modelling approaches, are also within the scope of this session.
G4. Integrated Models for Risk-Based Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Variability and ChangeOrganiser: Richard Warrick (rwarrick@usc.edu.au)
This session would focus on the development and application of software models and tools for simulating the impacts of climate variability and change, and for evaluating adaptation options for reducing the risks. It would address both current risks arising from natural climatic variability (natural hazards) as well as changes to those risks from climate change (global change). The scope of the modelling and applications would extend to human as well as environmental systems.
This session would focus on the development and application of software models and tools for simulating the impacts of climate variability and change, and for evaluating adaptation options for reducing the risks. It would address both current risks arising from natural climatic variability (natural hazards) as well as changes to those risks from climate change (global change). The scope of the modelling and applications would extend to human as well as environmental systems.
G5. Modelling Climate Change Impacts On Water Quality And EcologyOrganisers: Lachlan Newham, iCAM, Australian National University (lachlan.newham@anu.edu.au)
Paul Whitehead, University of Reading (p.g.whitehead@reading.ac.uk)
Quantifying the effects of climate change on water quality and ecology is a difficult task given the dual challenge of generating accurate climate change predictions and quantifying the effects of climate drivers on processes for which we often have very limited understanding. Not surprisingly there are very few examples where climate change impacts on water quality and ecology have been well quantified and the methods used have been comprehensively tested. Modelling approaches underpinned by historic water quality and ecological investigation offer perhaps the best opportunities to attain this goal. The development and application of models enables the assumptions underpinning climate change impacts on water quality and ecology to be made more explicit and to be incorporated into robust frameworks for encapsulating understanding of dominant processes and their interrelationships. To share knowledge of possible approaches we welcome papers reporting on any aspect of the modelling of climate change impacts on water quality and ecology. Papers reporting specific management applications and/or presenting evaluations of their success are particularly welcome.
Paul Whitehead, University of Reading (p.g.whitehead@reading.ac.uk)
Quantifying the effects of climate change on water quality and ecology is a difficult task given the dual challenge of generating accurate climate change predictions and quantifying the effects of climate drivers on processes for which we often have very limited understanding. Not surprisingly there are very few examples where climate change impacts on water quality and ecology have been well quantified and the methods used have been comprehensively tested. Modelling approaches underpinned by historic water quality and ecological investigation offer perhaps the best opportunities to attain this goal. The development and application of models enables the assumptions underpinning climate change impacts on water quality and ecology to be made more explicit and to be incorporated into robust frameworks for encapsulating understanding of dominant processes and their interrelationships. To share knowledge of possible approaches we welcome papers reporting on any aspect of the modelling of climate change impacts on water quality and ecology. Papers reporting specific management applications and/or presenting evaluations of their success are particularly welcome.
G6. Water, Energy and Carbon Cycles in the Murray-Darling BasinOrganiser:Dr Jason Evans (jason.evans@unsw.edu.au)
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has initiated a series of Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). Australia's Murray-Darling Basin RHP has been ongoing for several years. It's main scientific focus has been to observe, understand and model the dynamics of the coupled water, energy and carbon cycles of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Many studies relevant to this GEWEX RHP have been carried out by various groups and individuals and this session provides a forum to bring them together. This session will consider papers on any aspect of the water, energy or carbon cycles in the MDB. Studies of the coupling or interaction between these cycles are also encouraged. No prior connection to the MDB RHP is required.
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has initiated a series of Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). Australia's Murray-Darling Basin RHP has been ongoing for several years. It's main scientific focus has been to observe, understand and model the dynamics of the coupled water, energy and carbon cycles of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Many studies relevant to this GEWEX RHP have been carried out by various groups and individuals and this session provides a forum to bring them together. This session will consider papers on any aspect of the water, energy or carbon cycles in the MDB. Studies of the coupling or interaction between these cycles are also encouraged. No prior connection to the MDB RHP is required.