H14. Mechanisms and predictability of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability

The uncertainty in the trajectory of global mean surface temperature in the coming several decades due to internal climate variability is higher than the uncertainty from emissions scenarios. This has placed decadal climate variability and prediction firmly in the spotlight. It is crucial that we observe, model and predict the climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales and better understand the roles of internal and external climate forcing.

However, our understanding of decadal to multidecadal climate variability is limited by short and sparse observational records, differences in models, discrepancies between palaeoclimate reconstructions, and dynamical theories that have only partial scientific consensus. A complete understanding of decadal scale variability is likely to come from improvements in modelling and observations across the fields of atmospheric science, oceanography and palaeoclimatology.

This interdisciplinary session will bring together our latest understanding of decadal to multidecadal climate variability and will discuss patterns, mechanisms and predictability on decadal timescales.