Papers and abstracts listed by session
Plenary papers
- Modelling tomorrow: Bridging science, society and innovation for a resilient South Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.P01.simmons PDF
- Robust models don’t grow on equations (or data) alone. The challenges of process-based modelling of pastoral systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.P02.snow PDF
- Objective evidence for the future https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.P03.mcginty PDF
- Probabilistic thinking in environmental modelling and leadership https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.P04.marshall PDF
- Advancing Australia’s flood guidance: Lessons learned and future directions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.P05.wasko PDF
A. Applied and computational mathematics
Stream Leaders: Barry Croke and Georgy Sofronov
A1. Applied Probability
Session Organisers: Andrea Collevecchio and Georgy Sofronov
- Efficient sampling from a multivariate normal distribution subject to linear equality and inequality constraints https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A01.adams PDF
- Full information problem with random horizon https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A01.entwistle PDF
- A modified multilevel Monte Carlo method and its numerical performance https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A01.inui PDF
- New random number generation tools for parallel environments (STREAM A KEYNOTE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A01.lecuyer PDF
A2. Advances In Numerical Solutions For Water Resources Models
Session Organisers: Julien Lerat and Barry Croke
- Improving the discrete form of the Nash cascade https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.croke PDF
- How fast can a MARRMoT run? Improving runtimes for the Modular Assessment of Rainfall-Runoff Toolbox (MARRMoT) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.fowler PDF
- Using energy balance functions to constrain future climate runoff trajectories https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.hughes PDF
- Non-linear reservoir modelling without tears using the QuaSoARe approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.lerat PDF
- Synthesising hydrological knowledge in a semi-dry region with low-permeability unsaturated zone using Modflow-6 https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.miotlinski PDF
- New hydraulic model for integrated water management https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.obeid PDF
- Impacts of inter-basin water diversion projects on feedback loops of water supply-hydropower generation-environment conservation nexus https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A02.wang PDF
A3. Modelling and simulation for trustworthy data science on challenging datasets
Session Organisers: Lewis Mitchell, Lauren Kennedy, John Maclean and Melissa Humphries
- Modelling the evolution of topics in social media conversations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.carniebronca PDF
- Modelling complex systems to analyse social media for belief revision https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.hoang PDF
- Network analysis of Australian Internet traffic dynamics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.lang PDF
- Making sense of heart rate variability: Identifying meaningful metrics for stress and pain prediction https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.lim PDF
- Is traditional natural language processing ‘dead’? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.magsarjav PDF
- Sentiment analysis of historical Australian parliamentary speeches https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.pincombe PDF
- Quantifying annotator reliability in moral classification of texts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A03.ren PDF
A4. Computational statistics and data analysis
Session Organisers: Georgy Sofronov and Nishanthi Raveendran
- ShapleyX – a Python package for the efficient estimation of Shapley effects and Sobol indices from tabular data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.bennett PDF
- Statistical modelling of property and crop losses https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.jason PDF
- PEST++SQP: a new, non-intrusive, open-source package for high-dimensional non-linear optimisation under uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.macasieb PDF
- Estimating fractions of N₂O emissions from nitrification and denitrification using data assimilation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.pan PDF
- Automated detection of small vessels on waterways for actionable insights https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.price PDF
- Modelling insurance losses from Australian bushfires https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.sofronova PDF
- Simulation of residential energy-efficiency star rating and thermal requirement using NatHERS certificate data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A04.wang PDF
A6. Industrial mathematical modelling and simulation
Session Organiser: Simon Watt
- Uncovering major barriers for not seeking mathematics assistance in the education industry: DEMATEL modelling approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A06.dzator PDF
- Validation of a numerical model of a ship and cable-towed body system https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A06.leahy PDF
- Simulating wind-driven greenhouse gas exchange in landfills https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A06.pjetri PDF
- A sensitivity analysis of the Activated Sludge process in a single reactor configuration https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A06.watt PDF
- A variable-rate sampling framework for efficient aerodynamic data sampling in CFD applications https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.A06.whitehouse PDF
B. Biological systems
Stream Leaders: Val Snow and Hazel Parry
B1. APSIM 30-Year Symposium: Shaping the Future of Agricultural Modelling
Session Organisers: Enli Wang, Zaynel Sushil and Val Snow
- APSIM crop model innovations for breeding and deep learning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.chapman PDF
- The struggles of software engineering in a science-based context https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.holzworth PDF
- Thirty years of APSIM modelling: Reflections on the journey, past, present and future https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.keating PDF
- Modelling livestock systems: bottom-up, top-down, or a meeting in the middle https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.liedloff PDF
- Beyond the paddock: Reflecting on APSIM’s legacy and reimagining its future – A panel session https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.pembleton PDF
- Simulating nitrogen dynamics for sustainable farming systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B01.verburg PDF
B2. APSIM-Development: Advances in Plant and Vegetation Modelling
Session Organisers: Karine Chenu, Edith khaembah and Enli Wang
- Development and evaluation of a Taro Model within the APSIM plant modelling framework https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.beletse PDF
- Modelling orchard systems in APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.brown PDF
- Modelling limiting transpiration under high evaporative demand to improve wheat productivity in dry environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.chenu PDF
- New approaches for simulating germination and emergence in APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.he PDF
- Calibration of APSIMx for key crops in Germany with public data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.heiss PDF
- Developing frost and heat stress damage functions to quantify yield loss for canola and wheat with APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.hu PDF
- Parameterisation of APSIM AgPasture for tropical pasture species; Brachiaria Mulato II and Gatton Panic https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.jayasinghe PDF
- Connecting a prior-knowledge network with APSIM: Towards breeding by design https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.mitsanis PDF
- Towards generalizable crop models: an eco-evolutionary optimality approach to carbon allocation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.norton PDF
- How well does APSIM NG simulate wheat yields with gridded data? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.richetti PDF
- Modelling frost and heat impact on yields: challenges and perspectives https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.richettij PDF
- Calibration and evaluation of APSIM Next Generation for grapevine growth and water use in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.solgi PDF
- Integrating molecular insights into phenology modelling enhances flowering time predictions (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B02.wang PDF
B3. APSIM Developments: Soil modelling capability (water, nutrients, temperature, climatic inputs)
Session Organisers: Kirsten Verburg, Mike Dodd and Heather Pasley
- Incorporating treading damage on wet soils in APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.dodd PDF
- A paradigm shift in nitrogen management: In-silico insights into biological nitrification inhibition in farming systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.garba PDF
- Modelling of soil nitrogen dynamics in a smart-irrigated maize field in Newry, Victoria https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.hu PDF
- Nitrogen loss in sugarcane: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of APSIM predictions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.kolar PDF
- Validated simulation of a long-term experiment reveals a pathway for improved crop productivity https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.lilley PDF
- Improving APSIM modules for enhanced-efficiency fertilizers to simulate N2O emissions in vegetable systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.liu PDF
- Enhancing near-surface soil water and temperature simulation through fine-scale field observations and mechanistic modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.luo PDF
- How and for how long should you “spin-up” soil C sub-pools in an APSIM simulation? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.pasley PDF
- Sensibility testing of a NH3 volatilisation model for APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.pasleyh PDF
- Use of mass balance to test and improve system models: Case study with APSIM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B03.sharp PDF
B4. APSIM Developments: Livestock, pests and diseases, whole farm modelling, cloud computing, etc.
Session Organisers: Dean Holzworth, Val Snow and Adam Liedloff
- GrowPF – A new model for tracking growth and body composition in ruminants (STREAM B KEYNOTE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B04.dougherty PDF
- Simulation-based decision-support tools in digital agriculture: Converting APSIM into point-and-click online tools https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B04.grewer PDF
- Modelling the whole farm effects of livestock selection: opportunities and limitations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B04.keogh PDF
- Redesigning the APSIM test and deployment system to bring benefits to developers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B04.paroz PDF
B5. Agricultural Systems
Session Organisers: Rogerio Cichota, Matthew Knowling and Qiaomin Chen
- Climate-driven rice expansion in northeast China: A geospatial analysis https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.bai PDF
- Simulating the effects of microclimate on the water balance of understorey plant communities in orchards https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.cichota PDF
- Systems modelling of technological opportunities for a sustainable and profitable dairy sector in New Zealand https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.ekanayake PDF
- Shedding light on complexity using sensitivity analysis https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.huth PDF
- Modelling greenhouse gas emissions in mixed crop–livestock farming systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.jayasinghe PDF
- Simulation-based decision support for nitrogen management in vegetable production: The Sustainable Vegetable Systems (SVS) Tool https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.khaembah PDF
- Identifying ‘macro’ drivers of cropping system performance https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.luo PDF
- Correlating rainfall and simulated pasture growth for developing sustainable grazing insurance products in northern Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.ly PDF
- Prioritising investment in diverse horticulture cropping systems for water quality outcomes using APSIM Next Gen https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.reeves PDF
- Multi-crop modelling framework for evaluating irrigation strategies and sowing window optimisation across Australian production environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.sarker PDF
- Pathways towards NetZero emissions in grain cropping farms https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B05.tan PDF
B6. Integrating data and system knowledge to support decision-making: Advances, applications and lessons learned
Session Organisers: Matthew Knowling and Kirsten Verburg
- Hierarchical ODE models for heading date estimation in wheat https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.fernandez PDF
- Machine learning approach to irrigation demand forecasting in the Indus Basin using Google Earth Engine https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.hafeez PDF
- Refining the Value-Ag framework for innovation impact evaluation in smallholder agrifood systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.monjardino PDF
- Quantifying parameter sensitivity in Ecopath with Ecosim Ecotracer models using a new Python wrapper https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.tan PDF
- More profits in good years, less risk in bad: Physics-informed reinforcement learning (RL) to inform crop selection https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.wang PDF
- Characterisation of new cultivars in national variety trials using genomic prediction and crop growth model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B06.zheng PDF
B7. Optimising farming systems to improve climate resilience and sustainability under water-constraint environments
Session Organisers: Ke Liu, Matthew Harrison and Ranju Chapagain
- Global sensitivity analysis and parameter optimisation of APSIM Next Generation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B07.liu PDF
- Developing of integrated model to evaluate the sustainability of climate smart and drought resilience agricultural adaptation technologies concerning water and food security in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B07.prasain PDF
B8. Innovative Modelling Approaches for Agricultural Systems Sustainability under Climate Change
Session Organisers: Bin Wang, Siyi Li, Puyu Feng and De Li Liu
- Knowledge integration and model evaluation for cross-sectoral agricultural climate change modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.allingham PDF
- Unraveling varietal resilience: integrating APSIM and RF to assess wheat yield responses to extreme temperatures https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.bai PDF
- A hybrid machine learning–process-based model approach of simulating ammonia volatilization in rice paddies https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.cao PDF
- Quantifying vegetation and soil organic carbon and their drivers in dryland ecosystems of Northwest, China https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.chen PDF
- Dynamic light extinction coefficient: A key to improve evapotranspiration partitioning for orchards in diverse climates https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.chend PDF
- Pathway of soil improvement through straw return to promote yield increase cannot be ignored https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.chenf PDF
- Integrating crop modelling and machine learning for non-destructive estimation of crop traits https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.chenq PDF
- Physics-guided deep learning for crop phenology simulation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.feng PDF
- Irrigated rice yield response to projected climate change in northwest Bangladesh https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.hossain PDF
- Climate risk assessment using multiple conceptual system models: A framework and application to water demand https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.leigh PDF
- Cost-effective agronomic practices could unlock Australian wheat yield potential (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.li PDF
- Bridging process knowledge and deep learning for daily-scale maize phenology modeling under climate variability https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.ou PDF
- Modelling the impact of novel Rht genes and biodegradable mulching on wheat early growth and yield https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B08.zhen PDF
B9. Advances in agent-based modelling and their statistical challenges in biological, ecological and agricultural systems
Session Organisers: Mitchell Welch and Timothy Schaerf
- Data-driven models of collective motion derived directly from force maps https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B09.schaerf PDF
- Development of an agent-based model for movement and foraging of sheep flock https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B09.welch PDF
- Vision and body as drivers of topological interactions in collective motion https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.B09.zvezdin PDF
C. Computer science and engineering
Stream Leaders: Min Chen and Dan Ames
C1. Using workflow platforms in modelling and simulation
Session Organiser: Paul Cleary
- Using Workspace to Explore Large Point Cloud Datasets https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C01.hetherton PDF
- Design validation and verification for non-intrusive flight test instrumentation (NIFTI) using Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C01.pattarakunnan PDF
- Towards seamless provenance in collaborative modelling: Integrating Airflow with Provena https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C01.petridis PDF
- Holistic naval ship design in CSIRO Workspace https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C01.rose PDF
- Workspace: 20 years retrospective and prospective https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C01.watkins PDF
C2. Modelling and simulation of Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS)
Session Organiser: Jonathan Dansie
- Autonomy integration for small satellite payloads: A roadmap https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C02.bennett PDF
- AI Large Language Models for control of uncrewed aerial systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C02.crase PDF
- Sensor-driven control of UAS using AI in simulation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C02.pywell PDF
- Journey costing based scheduling of uncrewed aerial vehicles with energy constraints and wind effects https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C02.sherman PDF
C3. Digital twins and mixed reality
Session Organisers: Lachlan Hetherton and David Thomas
- Predicting lettuce biomass under six climate zones using machine learning in a digital twin system https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C03.liang PDF
- PipeTwin: A scalable framework for Digital Twin deployment in mineral suspension pipelines https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C03.xie PDF
- Assumptions tracking in system models: Case studies from digital twins in agriculture and horticulture https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C03.zhang PDF
C4. Open and intelligent modeling and simulation
Session Organisers: Fengyuan Zhang and Zaiyang Ma
- Construction of an automatic driver mdoelling system based on fuzzy inference from vehicle trajectory data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C04.li PDF
- PyGeoModel: A python package for integrating intelligent geographic model services into Jupyter's computing environment https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C04.ma PDF
- Exploring geographical modal and its implication to support geographical integration https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C04.sun PDF
- MapMate: A Framework Bridging Natural Language Interaction and Map Design Through Large Language Models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C04.tang PDF
- Geo-analysis model interoperability in the AI era: Challenges, solutions and future directions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C04.zhang PDF
C5. Systems for Supporting the Re-use of Data – The Backbone of Digital Transformation
Session Organiser: Ryan McAllister
- The Minerva data platform – towards a data platform for research applications https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C05.bell PDF
- Consolidating Flow-MER modelling tools and metadata for national environmental reporting https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C05.rezvani PDF
- Toward an Internet of Things data governance approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C05.seo PDF
- Designing for reality: A bottom-up approach to data interoperability https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C05.welti PDF
C6. Emulation of Dynamic Models
Session Organisers: Dan Pagendam and Ashfaqur Rahman
- Time-uniform universal approximation and recurrent neural networks https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C06.bishop PDF
- Spatiotemporal groundwater predictions using explainable AI https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C06.clark PDF
- High-fidelity emulation of a groundwater simulator using a deep LSTM neural network architecture https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C06.pagendam PDF
- Using machine learning to emulate physics-inspired agent-based models: a case study in emergency evacuations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C06.smith PDF
- Accounting for fire and grazing effects to improve soil organic modelling through emulator-based parameter recalibration https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C06.ugbaje PDF
C7. Advancing Machine Learning in Hydrology: Ensuring Reliable, Reproducible, and Validated Applications
Session Organisers: Willem Vervoort, Rajitha Athukorala, Arpit Kapoor and Rohitash Chandra
- When more isn’t always better: Lessons from multi-variable calibration in hydrology https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.athukorala PDF
- Flash flood nowcasting based on deep learning and radar rainfall estimates https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.hou PDF
- How much data is enough? Evaluating training length in physics-informed LSTM for soil moisture https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.jiang PDF
- A hybrid quantile deep learning ensemble framework catering to streamflow uncertainty and extreme events https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.kapoor PDF
- Importance of scientific rigour in validating machine learning models: The Google global flood model example https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.razavi PDF
- Spatially weighted fine-tuning of LSTMs for improved streamflow predictions in ungauged catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.shokri PDF
- Confronting data leakage in environmental model optimisation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.C07.vervoort PDF
D. Economics and finance
Stream Leaders: Chia-Lin Chang, Felix Chan and Linh Ho
D1. Machine Learning Applications in Economics and Finance
Session Organiser: Felix Chan
- Generating initial values using artificial neural network https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.chan PDF
- A LASSO-based approach to wage spillover https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.chanf PDF
- Estimating sparse variance-covariance using shrinkage methods: applications to error components models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.chanf2 PDF
- Gender wap gap analysis using machine learning methods https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.dunne PDF
- Hybrid forecasting of crude oil prices using WT‑QPSO‑ANFIS https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.tansuchat PDF
- A comparative study on subspace detection techniques for hyperspectral image classification https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.tasnim PDF
- FUSE: Forecasting with UNSPSC-Enhanced granularity https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D01.wang PDF
D2. Modelling Risk Management, ESG, Climate Finance, Policy Evaluation, and Tourism Economics
Session Organisers: Chia-Lin Chang and Ghialy Yap
- Realised volatility estimation shortcuts: An empirical analysis https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D02.allen PDF
- Do sustainability metrics matter? ESG effects on green bond premiums https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D02.cheng PDF
- A prototype Earth System Impact score for businesses and investors https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D02.lade PDF
- Does overtourism and climate risk nexus exist? A cross-country examination https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D02.yap PDF
D4. International Trade, Supply Chains, and Global Markets
Session Organiser: Linh Ho
- Tariff risks and stock market performance: Evidence from multivariable simultaneous quantile https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D04.ho PDF
- Forecasting Australian pulse export trade flows and uncovering key trade determinants using machine learning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D04.perera PDF
D5. Decision-making under uncertainty in economics and finance
Session Organisers: Ranjodh Singh and Felix Chan
- Rules of thumb or models: Exploring diversity in growers’ nitrogen fertiliser decisions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D05.azeem PDF
- Do offer contracts, platform yield in deal structure matter? Analyses of U.S. securities-based crowdfunding markets https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D05.chua PDF
- How Climate Change Affects Protest Behaviour https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D05.robertson PDF
- Factor models in housing research: Addressing methodlogical gaps for enhanced policy decision-making https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D05.singh PDF
D6. Applications of new technologies or methods in economics and finance
Session Organisers: Yongxian Tan and Joyce Khuu
- An economic balance sheet approach to quantify the risks affecting broadacre grain farmland value in Western Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D06.hayes PDF
- The relationship between FinTech adoption, financial inclusion and poverty in rural Thailand https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D06.khwankaew PDF
- From disaster to debt: Exploring the link between natural catastrophes and syndicated loans https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D06.murad PDF
- Evaluating whether the A-VIX improves volatility forecasts in the Australian equity market https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D06.robertsonwall PDF
- A top-down changepoint detection framework based on on two-state Markov-switching model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.D06.zhang PDF
E. Energy, integrated infrastructure and urban planning
Stream Leaders: John Boland, Lui Cirocco and Adrian Grantham
E1. Tools for the Energy Transition
Session Organiser: John Boland
- Forecasting diffuse solar radiation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.boland PDF
- Analysis of changes in peak temperature impact on energy demand in South Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.ekanayake PDF
- Modelling urban emissions – a Perth case study https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.grace PDF
- Predictive power: Unlocking grid stability through solar forecasting https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.mitchard PDF
- Enhanced tools necessary for managing a high distributed solar photovoltaic electricity system https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.panicciari PDF
- Conceptualisation of simulation platform for assessing residential construction code impacts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E01.rojas PDF
E2. Decarbonisation of industrial processes
Session Organisers: John Pye and Ye Wang
- Integration of variable-rate industrial processes with variable renewable energy: A case study in H2-DRI https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E02.fontalvo PDF
- Electrification of cement clinker production: A case study on variable renewable energy integration https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E02.leow PDF
- Facilitating techno-economic evaluation of green hydrogen production pathways through accessible optimisation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E02.may PDF
- Optimisation of energy supply to industry hub with multi-criteria selection and techno-economic assessment https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E02.wang PDF
- AI-enhanced life cycle assessment of circular energy–waste systems in sustainable built environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E02.wangs PDF
E3. Economic modelling for a sustainable energy transition
Session Organisers: Taj Khandoker, Jenny Hayward , James Foster and Paul Graham
- Bankable by design: Currency settlement, FX hedging and CHPS demand support for a Pilbara-Incheon Green-Hydrogen Pilot Corridor https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.aihemaiti PDF
- Least-cost modelling of electricity systems with a high share of weather dependent renewable generation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.graham PDF
- A simplified electricity system model for exploring least cost generation mixes (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.grahamp PDF
- Towards the generalised compression of weather data for technoeconomic optimisations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.green PDF
- Modelling green hydrogen for a fairer, cleaner Australia: The role of digital twins and circular economy https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.karklevin PDF
- A multisectoral bio-physical Stock-Flow-Consistent input-output macroeconomic modelling analysis for Australian transition to low-emission energy https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.khandoker PDF
- A system-wide Energy Return on Investment (EROI) approach to Australia’s renewables transition https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.lloydhurwitz PDF
- Understanding structural change from transitioning to a low-carbon economy: an integrated multi-model approach for Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.mariano PDF
- Next-generation electric vehicle forecasting: long-term sales projections in the Australian context https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.mediwaththe PDF
- Economic modelling of rooftop photovoltaic and battery storage for affordable low-emission energy transitions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.sharma PDF
- Optimisation of renewable electricity supply for brackish groundwater desalination in Western Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E03.wu PDF
E4. AI assessment of distributed energy resources and variable renewable energy systems
Session Organiser: Luigi Cirocco
- Data-driven rolling forecasting for wind and solar generation: Evaluating statistical models across historical data lengths https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.alikhani PDF
- Dynamic short-term solar forecasting using historical data and machine learning under varying weather conditions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.bai PDF
- Employing image processing and anomaly detection for faulty solar cells https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.bonu PDF
- Interpretable deep learning for energy forecasting and outlier detection https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.chopin PDF
- Long Short-Term Memory and statistical time series analysis forecast models for renewable energy and prices https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.cirocco PDF
- The role of artificial intelligence techniques in forecasting renewable energy sources https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.johnson PDF
- Analysis of deviations in electricity demand forecasts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.loh PDF
- AI-driven detection of false data injection attacks in OLTC-controlled microgrids https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E04.rao PDF
E5. The Role of Microgrids in Building Resilient, Low-Carbon Communities
Session Organiser: Vanika Sharma
- Modelling microgrids https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.E05.grace PDF
F. Environment and ecology
Stream Leaders: Stefan Reis and Shawn Laffan
F1. Ecological and environmental modelling using a combination of mathematical and statistical approaches
Session Organiser: Matthew Adams
- High resolution mapping of buffelgrass using dense time series of imagery and open source data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F01.box PDF
- Toward modelling termite impacts on carbon stability and methane emissions in greenhouse gas modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F01.farooq PDF
- Advanced spatial modelling for analysing regional emissions: a spline approach to the environmental kuznets hypothesis https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F01.Furkova PDF
- Air quality modelling for Pacific Island countries: Insights from the Solomon Islands and Fiji https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F01.liska PDF
- A three-patch predator-prey model: migration expands the survival region https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F01.nakagiri PDF
F3. Modelling for effective climate change adaptation
Session Organisers: Rebecca Doble and Vanessa Round
- Sensitivity analysis of a local-scale coral larval connectivity model to biological parameters https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F03.ani PDF
- Changes in groundwater recharge under 2030 and 2050 climates in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F03.crosbie PDF
- Communicating climate information for adaptation through familiar frames https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F03.round PDF
- Ecological thresholds of concern in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F03.stratford PDF
- Ecological community modelling: climate-informed adaptation strategies for southeastern Australia’s biodiversity https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F03.thonell PDF
F4. Exploring the multiple roles of managed water within river basins
Session Organisers: Tanya Doody, Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad and Susan Cuddy
- Climate-resilient and adaptive water management for resilient farming and improved productivity in Pakistan https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.ahmad PDF
- A time-series analysis of on-farm storage development in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.awan PDF
- Strategic environmental water use: optimising wetland outcomes with ecological feedbacks https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.carlier PDF
- Evaluating the ecological outcomes of environmental watering: the role of the counterfactual https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.cuddy PDF
- Novel assessment of trajectories of change in Murray-Darling Basin riverine tree ecosystems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.doody PDF
- Are flow thresholds and observed hydrological data enough to evaluate the effect of environmental watering? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F04.egger PDF
F5. Advancing decision support: Decision tools for building robust and resilient futures
Session Organisers: Takuya Iwanaga, Sam Matthews and Pedro Ribeiro De Almeida
- From competing to complementary: Digital engineering ecosystems as Net Zero Enablers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.aly PDF
- Reef depth as a robust reef characteristic for intervention planning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.grier PDF
- Utilising satellite-derived maps to partition coral reefs into meaningful spatial units https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.hallerbull PDF
- Identifying intervention options that promote coral reef resilience under climate uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.hiratasanches PDF
- A return to decision support: How can decision support tools be used at the science-policy interface? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.matthews PDF
- Natural hazards ahead: Navigating uncertainty with stakeholder-led scenarios https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.miller PDF
- Sunwater Smart Schemes: Improving efficiency in water delivery https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.morales PDF
- Embedding public health in environmental stewardship: lessons from participatory landscape modelling in central New South Wales, Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.onyango PDF
- Interpretable sensitivity analysis of a coral ecosystem model: An assessment of CoralBlox with Shapley Effects https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.ribeirodealmeida PDF
- Modelling spread of invasive organisms as part of a New Zealand Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.sharp PDF
- Scenario simulation modelling for future states of Australian socioecological landscapes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.szetey PDF
- Using foresight and modelling to stress-test risk reduction options under various climate and socio-economic scenarios https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.vandelden PDF
- ParetoPick-R; an interactive tool for turning multi-objective optimisation results into actionable solutions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F05.wittekind PDF
F7. Coupling Models for Agricultural Transformation and Climate Change Adaptation: Challenges, Opportunities, and Best Practices
Session Organisers: Andrea Kaim and Martin Volk
- A state-variable based approach to model integration in a horticultural modelling platform https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F07.bell PDF
- An integrated PMP-ABM model of adaptive enforcement and behavioral spillover https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F07.bouzidi PDF
- Transforming agriculture under climate change: A coupled framework of process-based, optimization and agent-based models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F07.kaim PDF
- Strategies for water and nutrient retention in agricultural catchments linking modelling and optimization https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F07.volk PDF
- A model workflow for land use planning, optimising water re-use and nutrient retention https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F07.wittekind PDF
F8. GIS and environmental modelling
Session Organiser: Shawn Laffan
- Fine-tuning remote sensing foundation models for improved live fuel moisture content estimation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.boston PDF
- Tracking the cure: Finding the right numerical tool for bath treatment dispersion https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.gunaratne PDF
- Identifying and mapping groundwater dependent ecosystems from phenological behaviour in time series of satellite imagery in the Northern Territory https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.job PDF
- Lähde: information system for maintaining up-to-date information on forest resources in Finland https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.jolma PDF
- Breaks and trends in MODIS time series across the semi-arid Paroo River catchment, Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.laffan PDF
- Assessing soil erosion on post-mining and analogous natural landscapes with SIBERIA and SSSPAM models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F08.senanayake PDF
F9. Ecological Forecasting: Advancing ecological theory and management in Oceania with near-term forecasts
Session Organisers: Belinda Medlyn, Ajitha Cyriac and Alistair Hobday
- High-resolution climate projections reveal future bleaching risks in the Great Barrier Reef https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.cyriac PDF
- From data gaps to climate projections: A framework for forecasting species population abundance https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.gunadasa PDF
- Charting the future: A horizon scan for ecological forecasting research in Oceania https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.hobday PDF
- Ecological forecasting to support experimental design: the EucFACE experiment as a case study https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.medlyn PDF
- Physically-based simulation of plant hydraulic transport and drought stress in Australian vegetation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.stephens PDF
- From climate refugium to heatwave epicentre: Will the 2025 Ningaloo bleaching become a new normal? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F09.sun PDF
F10. Applications of artificial neural networks and generative artificial intelligence to environmental problems
Session Organisers: Dave Penton and Ben Leighton
- Do androids dream of workflow provenance? An intelligent interface to the Provena metadata system https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.baker PDF
- Generative AI enhancing understanding of vast integrated environmental assessments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.leighton PDF
- Temporal dynamics and controlling factors of CO2 fluxes of the Asia’s largest artificial freshwater lake https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.lu PDF
- Impute-Net: A deep learning approach to missing observations in satellite imagery https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.pahlevi PDF
- LLM-assisted initial problem conceptualization in decision-making under deep uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.pei PDF
- Does a water policy paper plus the Self-Thinking Data Manifest (STDM) equal an educational experience? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.penton PDF
- Modelling buddy - making large language models competent assistants in environmental modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.perraud PDF
- Marine ecosystem modelling with generative AI (STREAM F KEYNOTE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F10.spillias PDF
F11. Agricultural Artificial Intelligence Modelling
Session Organiser: Jonathan Richetti and Sarah Hartman
- Early forecasting of crop irrigation for sustainable water use with satellite data and machine learning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.aeman PDF
- Machine learning for locust population dynamics and outbreak prediction https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.baumgartner PDF
- Soil property prediction under data scarcity using a tabular foundation model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.deo PDF
- Comparing machine learning and process-based models for predicting wheat flowering timing https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.ledvinka PDF
- A hybrid feature selection framework: balancing information preservation and multicollinearity in biological datasets https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.mohajer PDF
- Characterizing yield through wheat's perception of time: Phenomics, enviromics and genomics-based predictions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.roth PDF
- Evaluation of empirical and radiative transfer modelling for estimating biochemistry using remote sensing data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.simicmilas PDF
- Mapping crop area and fertilizer application rates globally for 173 crops https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.tang PDF
- Towards rapid 3D soil moisture mapping with multiple on-the-go proximal sensors https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F11.zhang PDF
F12. The Future of Vegetation: Advances in Modelling Plant Function and Distribution
Session Organisers: Clare Stephens, Alexander Norton and Belinda Medlyn
- Simple models can reveal insightful science: data-fitted models of intertidal seagrass as a case study https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.adams PDF
- Tracking the path of carbon through ecosystems: modelling vegetation carbon dynamics at Australian flux sites https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.inbar PDF
- Australian trees for the Australian Earth System Model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.norton PDF
- Projected changes in biomass carbon under future climate scenarios in semi-arid southeastern Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.wang PDF
- Mapping plant phenological traits at fine resolution continentally by combining process-based modelling and remote sensing https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.yang PDF
- Revealing seasonal plasticity of whole-plant hydraulic properties using sap-flow and stem water-potential monitoring https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F12.zhang PDF
F13. Reimagining Croplands: Modeling Carbon Storage and Biodiversity Benefits
Session Organisers: Jinyan Yang, Senani Karunaratne, Chiara Pasut and Sebastian Ugbaje
- Mechanistic modelling of socil organic-inorganic carbon dynamics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.casse PDF
- Carbon dioxide removal via enhanced weathering: Modelling the effect of soil properties https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.green PDF
- Boundary line analysis for estimating attainable soil organic carbon across Australian grain regions and farm-level constraints https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.hossen PDF
- Soil carbon sequestration potential of Queensland under land use change and future climate scenarios https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.leo PDF
- Unpacking soil carbon stabilization: From measurement to modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.liu PDF
- Projecting future changes in soil organic carbon across New South Wales using machine learning and climate projections https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.ma PDF
- Modelling soil organic carbon change: the role of climate, soil, land-management, and carbon input in Australian farming systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.pasut PDF
- Depth-resolved soil organic carbon estimation: a scalable approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.vankretschmar PDF
- Partitioning soil organic carbon for Australian croplands https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.F13.yang PDF
G. Global change and natural hazards
Stream Leaders: Jason Evans and Jason Sharples
G2. Recent Advances of Earth Observations in Climate Change Impact Research
Session Organisers: Yun Chen, Lin Zhu, Tingbao Xu and Catherine Ticehurst
- Spatial and temporal variability of weather system contributions to rainfall in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.fu PDF
- Assessing the contribution of grasslands to Australian national carbon sequestration under a changing climate https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.gou PDF
- Operational satellite-based disaster monitoring on the cloud: Case studies from Asia (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.kim PDF
- Integrating time-series InSAR and ensemble learning model for land subsidence susceptibility mapping https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.li PDF
- Aquifer elastic skeletal storage coefficient estimation via PS-InSAR, TICA, and Bayesian inference under precipitation variability https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.lic PDF
- Land subsidence and rebound response to groundwater recovery in the Beijing Plain: A new hydrological perspective https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.meng PDF
- Satellite-based assessment of marine phytoplankton productivity responses to climate and anthropogenic pressures in Asia-Pacific waters https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.xu PDF
- Correlations of land surface temperature with climatic and oceanic factors in China (1952–2022) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.zhang PDF
- Spatial and temporal variation of surface temperatures in China based on long-term reanalysis data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.zhangy PDF
- Advancing erosion predictive capabilities through deep learning in southeast Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G02.zhu PDF
G3. Climate risk assessment for government and industry: Bridging the gap between climate science and actionable insights for decision makers
Session Organisers: Raymond Cohen, Mahesh Prakash, Geoff Lee and Nikhil Garg
- Turning cross-sectoral agricultural climate change modelling into actionable insights for industry and government https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G03.allingham PDF
- Framework for deriving future hazard layers from future climate data for physical climate risk assessments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G03.cohen PDF
- Facilities for addressing disaster challenges and promoting economic development in Africa https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G03.dzator PDF
- Efficient high-resolution climate simulations for Western Australia: optimising domain design and resource allocation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G03.kala PDF
- Climate change rainfall data algorithm for continuous modelling of stormwater https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G03.stancu PDF
G4. Projections of regional climate change: from modelling to applications
Session Organisers: Jason Evans and Marcus Thatcher
- Utilising CORDEX projections to assess runoff changes in Victoria https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.devanand PDF
- A CORDEX Flagship pilot study for simulating island climates in the Pacific (IC-Pac) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.evans PDF
- Projections of global groundwater temperatures due to climate change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.irvine PDF
- Intensification of short-duration extreme precipitation over Greater Sydney: Observations and climate projections https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.khadke PDF
- A next-generation tool for bias-correcting RCM inputs to enhance regional climate projections https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.kim PDF
- Regional climate model projections of Australia's future weather systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.pepler PDF
- When floods disrupt freight: modelling supply chain risks under future climates https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.tong PDF
- Extreme coastal wave events: assessing global cumulative energy trends and wind forcing resolution impacts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G04.villalba PDF
G6. Urbanization, Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, and Risk Mitigation
Session Organisers: Guna Hewa and Huade Guan
- Urbanisation and climate variability driving hydrological and geomorphological changes: Implications for flood risk (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.andualem PDF
- Modelling urban heat islands: The role of high-resolution urban morphology https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.imran PDF
- Comparing methods to reconstruct river cross sections from LiDAR DEMs for improved flood plain modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.karunanayake PDF
- A verification of the hydrological impact of 50 years of development in an urban catchment https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.kemp PDF
- Drywells for the future: Managing urban stormwater in a changing climate https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.pan PDF
- Understanding catchment hydrology approaches for flow estimation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.singh PDF
- Challenges in deriving representative rainfall-runoff model parameters for flood forecasting: Insights from Sixth Creek, South Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G06.wijekoon PDF
G7. Tackling the challenges associated with modelling increases in landscape fire effects on human and ecosystem health under climate change conditions
Session Organisers: Stefan Reis, Ivan Hanigan, Massimo Vieno and Damaris Tan
- Continental-scale machine learning classification of fire smoke pollution events for health research in Australia, 2001-2020 https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.gopi PDF
- Old tools, new landscapes: Application of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to achieve bushfire risk reduction objectives https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.radford PDF
- Biogenic and anthropogenic contributions to air quality extreme events in urban centres in Southeast Asia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.scheffler PDF
- High-resolution landscape fire monitoring: satellite-guided reconstruction of ground-level air pollutants at ten minute and 500 m scale https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.sowden PDF
- When dust meets cloud: overcoming satellite monitoring gaps in high-impact pollution events across Australasia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.sowdenm PDF
- Towards a globally nested EMEP4UK model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.tan PDF
- Air quality forecasts made affordable https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G07.vieno PDF
G8. Modelling of bushfire dynamics, fire weather, impact and risk
Session Organisers: Jason Sharples and Tanvir Saurav
- The effect of ignition protocol on dynamic fire propagation in the Bridger Foothills fire https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.blachut PDF
- Simulation of ember transport around urban structures https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.cunningham PDF
- Assessing uncertainty and sensitivity in forest fire behaviour models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.he PDF
- Terrestrial water storage in wildfire forecast https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.kankanige PDF
- A Random Forest analysis of variables influencing pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) occurrence over temperate southeast Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.ma PDF
- Indirect effects of climate change on forests and their fires – pitfalls for modellers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.mcrae PDF
- Observations of vorticity-driven lateral spread in a wildfire https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.mcraer PDF
- Mapping and modelling bushfire exposure at the wildland–urban interface in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.mehnaz PDF
- Modelling the intensity of Victorian bushfire as observed by Himawari-9 (STREAM G KEYNOTE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.pindor PDF
- Multiscale analysis of terrain–lightning relationships using machine learning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.rahmani PDF
- Fuel moisture lag effects in fire spread calculations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.reeves PDF
- Climate change will accelerate seasonal fire weather severity by 8–24% in Southeastern Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.roba PDF
- Resolving radiation in physics-based wildfire spread modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.swedosh PDF
- Modes of pyrocumulonimbus development in southeast Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G08.wilson PDF
G9. Advancing Flood and Tsunami Modelling: Techniques, Applications, and Emerging Technologies
Session Organisers: Jin Teng, Fazlul Karim, Stephen Roberts and Catherine Ticehurst
- Estimating surface water fractions for enhanced flood monitoring https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.guo PDF
- Hydrodynamic modelling of floods and developing an emulator for long term inundation predictions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.karim PDF
- Floodplain inundation modelling using CaMa-Flood across the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.khan PDF
- Accommodating undulating tidal planes in tsunami models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.macaulay PDF
- Scenarios in stories: Communicating flood inundation modelling in the Cooper Creek using interactive StoryMaps https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.mateo PDF
- Impact of topographic data resolution on spatial interpolation of hourly rainfall splines for flood inundation modelling (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.nguyen PDF
- Introducing a fast and scalable method for floodplain inundation modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.teng PDF
- Including flooded vegetation in Earth-observation flood maps to assist in the assessment of hydrological models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.ticehurst PDF
- Event-based erosion modelling - A case study of ex-tropical cyclone Alfred https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.G09.yang PDF
H. Health and biosecurity
Stream Leaders: Irene Hudson
H1. Use Of Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning In The Design And Modeling Of Disease, Cancer, And Safety Data
Session Organisers: Sejong Bae, Jong Bae Baek, Karan Singh and Al Bartolucci
- Discovery of MRI biomarker for early Alzheimer's disease integrating regional atrophy and ventricular expansion https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H01.aberathne PDF
- AI and ML transform clinical trials using real-world evidence to improve design, analysis, outcomes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H01.bae PDF
- Early mortality risk prediction in acutely injured service members using machine learning algorithms https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H01.le PDF
- Safety management of hazardous chemicals in semiconductor wafer cleaning equipment focus of subcontractor practices https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H01.lee PDF
H2. Data science and simulation modelling methods in health
Session Organisers: Louise Freebairn, Simon Chiu, William Jones and Geoff McDonnell
- Clustering irregular cytokine time series using Gaussian Process Mixture Models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H02.beard PDF
- Evaluating strategies to improve patient and staff outcomes in a distributed paediatric ICU: A simulation study at the Children’s Hospital at Westmead https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H02.currie PDF
- Designing personalized levodopa regimens using minimal inputs and hybrid simulation modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H02.knowles PDF
- An adaptable modelling framework for infection risk and control https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H02.ozcakir PDF
- Forecasting all risk factors for all countries https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H02.wilson PDF
H3. Evidence-Based and Optimal Decision-Making in Health Services Research through Simulation and Modelling
Session Organisers: Hadi Khorshidi, Juntao Lyu and Gang Chen
- On causal loop diagrams and directed acyclic graphs: Insights in health systems and genomics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H03.akbarzadehkhorshidi PDF
- An improved routing and scheduling approach for home-based chemotherapy and infusion services with a single nurse https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H03.fernando PDF
- Rethinking the scale-up of digital technologies for youth mental health: insights from participatory systems modelling in Western Sydney https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H03.hosseini PDF
- Genomic risk stratification in optimising intermediate risk prostate cancer management in Australia: A discrete event simulation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H03.lyu PDF
H4. Modelling the impact of environmental pressures on vector-borne and zoonotic disease burdens
Session Organisers: Helen Mayfield, Esther Onyango and Benn Sartorius
- A systematic review of quantitative models for African swine fever: Diversity across host and environmental drivers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H04.liguesabio PDF
- Geostatistical modelling of Lymphatic Filariasis in Samoa using integrated human and mosquito surveillance data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H04.mclure PDF
- Ecological suitability of Japanese encephalitis virus in Australia: a modelling analysis of vector-host transmission dynamics to potential spillover in humans https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H04.skinner PDF
- Qualitative network modelling to assess climate-sensitive vibrio and antimicrobial resistance in Tasmanian oyster supply chain https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H04.subramaniam PDF
- Predictive modelling of Ross River virus in NSW https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H04.sumithra PDF
H5. Development and applications of simulation models in health economics
Session Organisers: An Duy Tran and Jonathan Karnon
- Computational modelling of black swan bioterror events https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H05.bradhurst PDF
- The modelled cost-effectiveness of a prevention program targeting both eating disorders and high BMI https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H05.le PDF
- Cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening strategies in China: Markov model and discrete event simulation comparison https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H05.lyu PDF
- Patient-level modelling of long-term cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in chronic kidney disease https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.H05.tranduy PDF
I. Participatory decision-making, socioecological systems, and education
Stream Leaders: Oz Sahin and Kate O’Brien
I2. Advancing System Dynamics Modelling: Integrating Emerging Technologies and Participatory Approaches for Enhanced Decision Support in Social Systems
Session Organisers: Hossein Hosseini and Sondoss El Sawah
- Generative AI applications in system dynamics modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I02.fakhimi PDF
- Leveraging participatory system dynamics to coordinate regional net zero transitions in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I02.hammond PDF
I3. Agent-based and data-driven modelling of complex social systems in public information environments
Session Organisers: Lewis Mitchell, Mengbin Ye, Keith Ransom and Emma Thomas
- Modelling the closed loop between a personalised recommender system and users' opinion dynamics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I03.davidson PDF
- A stochastic nonlinear model of influence in synchronisation dynamics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I03.gallant PDF
- An agent-based model for the formation of common ground https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I03.jung PDF
- DIMESim: an agent-based model of the psychological dynamics of collective action https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I03.thomas PDF
I4. Training future modellers for an uncertain future
Session Organisers: Kate O'Brien, Holger Maier, Sondoss El Sawah and Badin Gibbes
- Ready or not, here AI comes: Meaningful AI integration needs collaboration of universities and industry https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I04.egger PDF
- What’s the point of education in the age of AI? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I04.obrien PDF
- Applying an ethical lens for more responsible modelling practice https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I04.szetey PDF
I5. Indigenous Modelling and Participatory Approaches
Session Organisers: Cas Price, Malcolm Connolly, Max Fabila and David Post
- A spatio-stochastic SEIR model of the 1789 smallpox epidemic in Dharawal Country https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.I05.nitschke PDF
J. Water resources
Stream Leaders: Jai Vaze and Murray Peel
J1. Long term shifts in hydrological systems
Session Organisers: Sreelakshmi Cherampatta Mana, Steven Lade, Timothy John Peterson and Murray Peel
- When rain returns but rivers don't: Non-stationary response of streamflow to rainfall https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J01.deng PDF
- Hydrological non-stationarity in the northern Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J01.gardiyaweligamage PDF
- Using models and high resolution monitoring to estimate recharge in south-west Western Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J01.hall PDF
- Ahead of the curve: Data-driven identification of hydrological state shifts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J01.kajubi PDF
- Attributing hydrological shifts in drought-affected catchments across the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J01.zheng PDF
J2. River System Modelling for Water Resources Management: Advances and Challenges
Session Organisers: Dushmanta Dutta, Trudy Green, Andrew Brown and Danielle Baker
- Modelling the hydrological impacts of leaky weirs on catchment rehydration using SWAT+ Modelstorage https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.aflah PDF
- The challenges and rewards of collaborative environmental flow modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.ashbolt PDF
- Protecting Australia's investment in the National Hydrological Modelling Platform https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.baasch PDF
- Application of hydro-economic modelling for water resource management in the Kamala River Basin, Nepal https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.basnyat PDF
- Shifting Left: Building a collaborative integrated hydrological model for the Murray‑Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.brennan PDF
- The impact of climate change on the hydrological and water management situation in the Lower Don https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.buber PDF
- Updated climate inputs for rainfall-runoff modelling in northern Victoria https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.cheng PDF
- Naomi and Murrumbidgee water balance tool – an integrated approach for river system manaement https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.ching PDF
- Climate data revisions and their impact on hydrological modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.cracknell PDF
- Analysing water security using NARCliM 2.0 climate projection https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.dutta PDF
- Abrupt drought-to-flood transitions in Australia (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.gan PDF
- FIRM: cloud-native integration framework for basin-scale hydrological modelling in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.gijsbers PDF
- Advancing water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus planning through digital tools: Applications from the Indus Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.hafeez PDF
- Climate and land-use change impacts on flow and non-flow drivers of ecological outcomes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.hashemimadani PDF
- Automating the extension of time series inputs for the Source GBCCL model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.hou PDF
- Hydro-economic modelling of climate change impacts on water allocations and markets https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.john PDF
- Uncertainty estimation for river system models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.kim PDF
- Simulating transmission losses during environmental flow events in the northern Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.kims PDF
- Modelling heteroscedasticity and detecting shifts in rating curves for reliable streamflow records https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.kona PDF
- Developing a Source model of the Upper Macquarie and Upper Coxs river systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.podger PDF
- Farm dam and licenced diversions under climate change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.quaine PDF
- Implementing dead storage representation in the Barwon-Darling Source model to improve low flow and cease to flow behaviour https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.reganbeasley PDF
- Enhancing environmental water management in Source: decoupling spell identification from ordering at environmental flow nodes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.sapkota PDF
- Urban demand models for the Fish River-Wywandy System https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J02.trim PDF
J3. Novel methods for data collection and predictive modelling in data sparse environments
Session Organisers: Matt Gibbs, Justin Hughes and Cuan Petheram
- Remote and retrospective calibration of soil moisture probes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.amir PDF
- Incorporating land use change adjustments into basin-scale groundwater recharge estimates in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.crosbie PDF
- Space-time image velocimetry for remote streamflow measurement using satellite video https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.gibbs PDF
- Continuous water potential monitoring for soil-plant continuum hydraulic parameterisation and simulation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.guan PDF
- Development and evaluation of "climate-robust" rainfall runoff model parameter libraries https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.hughes PDF
- Estimating streamflow discharge using the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.petheram PDF
- Hyperspectral image analysis for environmental monitoring: advances of the last decade https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J03.tasnim PDF
J4. Responding to the Challenges and Complexities of Urban Water Management
Session Organisers: Trudy Green, Steve Kotz, Leon van der Linden and Mukta Sapkota
- Melbourne’s water supply modelling information system: Progress update and next steps https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J04.kularathna PDF
- Water resources modelling in Melbourne: Current status and future directions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J04.kularathnam PDF
- LSTM-based policy model for minimising pump operational costs in water distribution systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J04.zheng PDF
J5. Fit for purpose modelling for water resources management
Session Organisers: Avril Horne, Wendy Merritt and Serena Hamilton
- Limitations and best practice for bottom-up climate risk assessments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.culley PDF
- Harnessing the strengths of machine learning and geostatistics to improve streamflow prediction in ungauged basins; the best of both world https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.grey PDF
- Integrated assessment and modelling for water management: lessons from transdisciplinary research https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.hamilton PDF
- Uncertainty assessment in water quality modelling: towards fulsome practices https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.jakeman PDF
- Evaluating stochastic weather generators for simulating hydrological extremes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.johnson PDF
- National-scale monitoring of irrigated agricultural water use using remote sensing evapotranspiration and a hydrological framework https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.liu PDF
- Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches to assess environmental outcomes under climate change – a case study https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.traill PDF
- Australian Groundwater Modelling Guidelines: past and future https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J05.woods PDF
J6. Hydroclimate extremes forecasting: from droughts to floods
Session Organisers: Ze Jiang, Ashish Sharma, Fitsum Woldemeskel and Adarsh S
- Harnessing quantum variational circuits for enhanced streamflow forecasting in the Greater Pamba River Basin, India https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.arathynair PDF
- Development of an Australia-wide extreme storms database for hydrologic risk assessments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.dykman PDF
- Australian meteorological drought: a review of process understanding, research gaps and model development needs https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.holgate PDF
- Interactive effects of vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ on drought conditions in Asia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.tu PDF
- Scale-invariant models for extreme rainfall: Application to Australian sites https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.you PDF
- A machine learning framework to enhance long-term drought forecast with spectrally transformed climate predictors https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J06.zhang PDF
J7. The path forward for hydroclimate risk assessments - advancing science, modelling and management to support decision making in large river basins
Session Organisers: Andrew John, Danlu Guo and Sam Culley
- Muti-variable calibration to improve robustness of landscape models under change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.gibbs PDF
- Shifting from modelling changes in climate to better understanding risks to achieving desired outcomes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.maier PDF
- Assessment of the impact of climate projection resolution on river system outcomes in the Murray-Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.montazeri PDF
- The need to avoid determinism and weak links in modelling chains when assessing climate impacts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.nathan PDF
- Integrating Indigenous Knowledge and Indigenous Data Sovereignty for sustainable water management https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.sedranprice PDF
- Is our approach to rainfall-runoff modelling future climate ready? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J07.weber PDF
J8. Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Water Resources Management
Session Organisers: Tze Ling Seline Ng, David Robertson and Jeffrey Newman
- Modelling of stormwater drainage systems using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.ahammed PDF
- Informed performance assessment of water resources systems under uncertainty by considering trade-offs between performance and risk appetite (NVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.cao PDF
- Optimizing sustainable water resource utilization of inter-basin water transfer under climate change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.fan PDF
- How indices contribute to global water scarcity estimation uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.gray PDF
- A structured framework for context-based selection of DMDU approaches in environmental water management https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.hashemimadani PDF
- Integration of operational and infrastructure decisions into long-term planning and management of water resources systems under deep uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.huang PDF
- Quantitative evaluation of the influence of rainfall runoff model parameter uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.jordan PDF
- Modelling of environmental water holders’ behaviour: A risk-based approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.lee PDF
- Risk mitigation and human judgment in environmental watering under forecast uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.ng PDF
- Rapid assessment of environmental flow targets using Bayesian logistic regression https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.schepen PDF
- Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.thyer PDF
- Embracing scenario thinking in water resources management under deep uncertainty https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J08.wu PDF
J9. Challenges, new concepts and new methods for water resources management
Session Organisers: Jing Yang, Barry Croke, Pan Liu and Yohei Sawada
- High-resolution near-surface soil moisture mapping for precision irrigation using a UAV https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J09.ayaz PDF
- Modelling long distance gravity flow channel design and alignment https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J09.seo PDF
- Comparing the performances of a physically based hydrologic model and machine learning model in the Ashburton catchment, New Zealand https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J09.yang PDF
- Real-time hydrological-hydraulic hybrid modelling to inform smart management of urban flow regimes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J09.zhang PDF
J10. Advancements in Hydrological Predictions through Novel Sensing and Innovative Modelling Techniques
Session Organisers: Hae Na Yoon, Lucy Marshall, Seokhyeon Kim and Viraj Vidura
- Physics-informed graph neural networks for operational flood modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.acosta PDF
- Modelling the frequency and extent of waterlogging: a case study https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.beverly PDF
- Mapping groundwater dependent ecosystems and their degradation using selected hydroclimatic windows https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.guan PDF
- Characterizing transboundary dam operations using only remote sensing data: insights from the Korea border https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.han PDF
- Estimation of land evapotranspiration over China based on Fengyun satellite https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.hou PDF
- Satellite-based water budgeting and seasonal groundwater stress assessment in Indus Basin using flux towers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.liaqat PDF
- A new physics-guided deep learning model for improving plant transpiration estimation under water-limited conditions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.liu PDF
- Process-informed stepwise multi-variable SWAT calibration framework https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.nervi PDF
- Bayesian inference for model construction in hydrology https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.niven PDF
- Step-wise calibration technique using SWAT model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.pagliero PDF
- Constrained negentropy optimisation (CoNE-opt): leveraging independent component analysis for the fusion of satellite-derived data products https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.shah PDF
- Bending time and space to predict hydrological extremes at decadal timescales (STREAM J KEYNOTE) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.sharma PDF
- Enhanced model parameter transferability to ungauged catchment through regionally constrained calibration https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.wang PDF
- Evaluating WRF-Hydro model reliability for water resource assessment in a semi-arid catchment of Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.wickramarachchi PDF
- Characterising multi-source uncertainties in satellite-based surrogate river discharge models https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J10.yoon PDF
J11. Ecohydrological Modelling
Session Organisers: Patricia Saco, Jo Owens and Jose Rodriguez
- Estimating evapotranspiration from deciduous broadleaf forests by considering the effect of foliar litter https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.fu PDF
- Assessing sun-induced fluorescence capability for detecting water stress responses in arid vegetation groundwater dependent ecosystems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.gao PDF
- Combining catchment hydro-sedimentological models with wetland eco-geomorphological models to assess mangrove resilience to climate and land use changes in the Pacific Islands https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.jorquera PDF
- Resolving the hydrodynamics of a coastal wetland in Moreton Bay https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.kurucz PDF
- Logistic regression model for early detection and prediction of algal blooms in estuarine environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.podsosonnaya PDF
- Modelling wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.saco PDF
- Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) framework as a tool to assess vegetation water stress https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.wimalasuriya PDF
- Root-zone 'periscope': Modelling plant-available water storage dynamics across scales from above ground observations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.J11.zhang PDF
K. Hydroclimate
Stream Leaders: Yongqiang Zhang and Conrad Wasko
K1. Modelling Complexity: New Approaches for Water, Environment and Society in Large Basins
Session Organisers: Okke Batelaan, Seth Westra, Neville Crossman and Ariella Helfgott
- From snowmelt to fields: Synthesizing water supply, use, and management gaps across Kabul River Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K01.akhter PDF
- Ramsar wetland climate adaptation: lessons learnt from a participatory process https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K01.doble PDF
- Leveraging petrophysical logs in data-scarce groundwater environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K01.herckenrath PDF
- Modelling the cost and viability of brackish groundwater desalination for agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K01.reeve PDF
- Understanding the impacts of climate change through the lens of climate and ecological analogues https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K01.sengupta PDF
K2. Statistical, post-processing and verification methods for environmental prediction
Session Organisers: James Bennett, Rob Taggart, Fiona Johnson and Benjamin Owen
- Enhancing NWP post-processing with IMPROVER https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.owen PDF
- Towards a sustainable workflow for post-processing development and evaluation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.owenb PDF
- Multi lead time parameter inference for post-processing precipitation forecasts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.shrestha PDF
- Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.taggart PDF
- When will it happen? On the evaluation of time-to-event, survival time and first-time passage forecasts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.taggartr PDF
- Beyond correlation: Cause-effect relations in hydrometeorological systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.yadav PDF
- BRAIN: Building A national, hourly, kilometre-scale precipitation analysis product for Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K02.zhang PDF
K3. Advancing Drought Monitoring, Prediction, And Resilience For Sustainable Development
Session Organisers: Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Yeonjoo Kim, Yongqiang Zhang and Faisal Baig
- Intensified water-ecological risks in the arid regions of Central Asia under global warming https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.chen PDF
- Changes in water availability and dryness under global climate change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.faiz PDF
- Land use and land cover change impact on the actual evapotranspiration in China https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.li PDF
- Benchmarking satellite-based evapotranspiration models with flux towers for agricultural water management https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.liaqat PDF
- Global ecosystems reveal divergent evapotranspiration response patterns to drought stress https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.ma PDF
- A multi-index assessment of climate variability and agricultural drought in Afghanistan using station-observed historical data https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.wahid PDF
- Extended global evapotranspiration and gross primary production dataset for 1981–2024 https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.xu PDF
- Marginal yield recessions can achieve agricultural water savings https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K03.yang PDF
K4. Understanding and modelling catchment behaviour in a variable and changing climate
Session Organisers: Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Tim Peterson and Ziqi Zhang
- Can our conceptual hydrological models really ‘get’ evapotranspiration? Lessons from testing 15 equations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.burns PDF
- A comparison of monthly runoff models for their performance under variable climate regimes within Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.cherampattamana PDF
- Calibrating robust conceptual hydrological models for future extremes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.dykman PDF
- Tailored calibration of stochastic weather generators for enhanced hydrological system evaluation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.mcinerney PDF
- Climate change appears to alter the proportion of rainfall that becomes streamflow in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.pamminger PDF
- Low flow prediction from land surface temperature https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.yangw PDF
- Can conceptual rainfall-runoff models capture multi-annual storage dynamics? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K04.zhang PDF
K5. When models fail: lessons learned from false starts, wrong turns and dead ends
Session Organisers: Fiona Johnson, James Bennett, Mark Thyer and Keirnan Fowler
- Learning from model failures: challenges in hydrological observations and modelling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K05.johnson PDF
K6. Advancing hydroclimate forecasting: methods and applications
Session Organisers: David Robertson, Mark Thyer, Andrew Schepen and David McInerney
- Trends in hydrological forecast skill in a changing climate https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K06.bennett PDF
- Selective incorporation of trend into seasonal streamflow climatology https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K06.graham PDF
- Hydrological modelling under uncertainty: Can two-state residuals improve error representation? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K06.hammad PDF
- Toward long-range forecasting of ecological outcomes https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K06.robertson PDF
- A novel deep learning model for post-processing of short- and medium-term daily precipitation forecasts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K06.zhao PDF
K7. Understanding hydrological extremes: trends, drivers and impacts
Session Organisers: Conrad Wasko, Yongqiang Zhang, Zhenwu Xu, Wenyan Wu, and Chiara Holgate
- A novel framework for estimating probable maximum tropical cyclone with sparse records https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.dutta PDF
- Meteorological drought termination: processes and trends https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.holgate PDF
- A new metric for better identifying and understanding rainfall-runoff events https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.khoie PDF
- Gap-filling terrestrial water storage in severe Amazon droughts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.liu PDF
- Impactful wet/windy extremes in Australia (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.pepler PDF
- Quantifying the global impact of atmospheric rivers on the recurrence of flood events https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.pradhan PDF
- Changes to wet and dry spell characteristics in Australian catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.thomas PDF
- Modelling changes in extreme rainfall for Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K07.wasko PDF
K8. Watershed flood regime changes and their prediction
Session Organisers: Yongyong Zhang, Quanxi Shao and Yongqiang Zhang
- Climate change dominates recent increase in streamflow in the Yellow River Basin https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.huang PDF
- Global lake primary productivity and carbon source-sink processes and their impact mechanisms https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.jia PDF
- Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China using CAS-ESM and machine learning technique (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.lin PDF
- Levelling up: Modelling flood inundation changes in the South Australian River Murray https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.mccullough PDF
- Climate change drove the decline in Yangtze Estuary net primary production over the past two decades https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.wang PDF
- Ensemble post-processing of sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts based on Probabilistic Double Machine Learning method https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.zhan PDF
- Predicting global runoff and hydrological drought in 1991-2024 using the HBV-PML model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.zhang PDF
- Predicting flood event class using a novel class membership function and hydrological modeling https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.zhangy PDF
- A hybrid decomposition and machine learning model for forecasting coastal chlorophyll-a and total nitrogen https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.K08.zhu PDF
L. Water quality
Stream Leaders: Andrew Western, Danlu Guo and Anna Lintern
L1. Catchment Water Quality Modelling
Session Organisers: Danlu Guo, Sandy Elliott and Jiping Jiang
- Rainfall-based estimation of fertiliser nitrogen inputs and their influence on stream nitrogen in Victorian catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.babatunde PDF
- Complexity of river water quality parameters using a nonlinear dynamic approach https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.dhumale PDF
- Extended uncertainty analysis for the simple catchment load model SPARROW and implications for water management https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.elliott PDF
- Modernising reach-scale stream bank erosion estimation in Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.ellis PDF
- Developing a water quality modelling toolkit: Load estimates in Port Phillip and Western Port catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.kemp PDF
- Modelling upstream water quality from downstream observations in the Muttama catchment https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.khang PDF
- Modelling mercury transport in legacy mining catchments in Victoria, Australia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.kyaw PDF
- Detection and driving factor analysis of hypoxia in river estuarine zones by entropy methods https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.pang PDF
- Optimising sugarcane fertiliser rates for modelling water quality in the Wet Tropics https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.shepherd PDF
- Estimating land-to-coast ocean fluxes of dissolved organic carbon using satellite observations and catchment models (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.unnithan PDF
- Improving the understanding and prediction of low extreme dissolved oxygen (DO) events in Victorian rivers https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L01.yan PDF
L2. Advanced Lake, Reservoir, Wetland and River System Modelling
Session Organisers: Tony Weber, Matt Hipsey, Liliana Pagliero and Michael Barry
- Informing risk and opportunity management in coal mine pit lakes via modelling experiments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.bulovic PDF
- A multi-scale modelling framework for assessing environmental impacts of pumped hydro energy storage https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.degroot PDF
- How does bathymetric resolution and mesh design influence estuarine flushing time estimates? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.moravej PDF
- Two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling of wetlands in non-urban catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.nguyen PDF
- Towards a reference GLM-AED model for wetlands in Great Barrier Reef catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.pagliero PDF
- Modelling thermal stratification in river waterholes using GLM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.rabiei PDF
- Forecasting with FLARE – predicting Lake Alexandrina water quality (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.sims PDF
- Coupling MODFLOW and GLM-AED for integrated simulation of lake–aquifer interactions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.vergarasaez PDF
- The numerical modeling study of discharging brine into the Persian Gulf of Saudi Arabia https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.weng PDF
- Real-time water quality forecasting in rivers using satellite data and dynamic models (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L02.whitehead PDF
L3. Modelling water quality treatment and management
Session Organisers: Anna Lintern and Mukta Sapkota
- Nutrient leaching and water recycling potential for vegetable production in Western Australia’s sandy soils https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.almeidalima PDF
- The addition of large-scale WSUD alternatives and their effect on kerbside stormwater systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.cook PDF
- Modelling monochloramine decay and the impact of zinc in a simulated drinking water distribution system https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.kulkarni PDF
- Using rainfall characteristics to evaluate sizing of rainwater tanks under climate change https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.manuelpillai PDF
- Industry application of multispecies modelling to track chloramine decay in a water network https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.obeid PDF
- Responding to the challenges and complexities of urban water management in the Sydney Metro – SSTOM https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.pannipitiya PDF
- Streamlining modelling & reporting for continuous simulation modelling of stormwater pollutants and runoff https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.stancu PDF
- MUSIC:'s Bioretention Node under climate change: What changes do we need? https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L03.wake PDF
L4. Modelling Erosion and Pollutant Dynamics
Session Organisers: Melanie Roberts, Anna Lintern, Danlu Guo and Ulrike Bende-Michl
- Modelling dissolved inorganic nitrogen losses from the Queensland sugarcane industry https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.chamberlain PDF
- Hydrodynamic modelling of water quality impacts of petrol-powered botas on a drinking water reservoir https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.cinque PDF
- Hydrologic response unit: The missing link in hydrology https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.cook PDF
- Building a water quality model for Receiving Environment Digital Twin (REDiT) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.lai PDF
- Comparing methods for assessing suspended sediment and turbidity trends in rivers: A Melbourne example https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.lintern PDF
- Modelling the effects of vegetation on mitigation of gully erosion using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.nguyen PDF
- A preliminary erosion model for gullies with complex geometries https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.randall PDF
- Drift analysis of a SLAM-based handheld laser scanner in gully environments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.rice PDF
- Climate change and gully erosion in Queensland - a preliminary investigation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.roberts PDF
- From monitoring to modelling soil erosion and sediment transport in gullied tropical savanna catchments (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.wynants PDF
- Improved hillslope erosion prediction for the Great Barrier Reef Catchments https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.L04.yu PDF
M. Operations Research
Stream Leaders: Simon Dunstall and Hasan Turan
M1. OR methods and applications
Session Organiser: Simon Dunstall
- Descriptive and predictive modelling for professional darts https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.aly PDF
- A practical approach to electricity network hardening decisions https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.dunstall PDF
- Integrated task and motion planning for keel block optimisation at Captain Cook Graving Dock https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.jones PDF
- Mothership and multi-tender routing: an optimisation framework for coral deployment under bathymetric constraints https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.lippmann PDF
- Optimising port–hinterland container transportation for resilience and sustainability https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.mennecke PDF
- Multi-objective and multi-stage optimisation for force structure design https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.nguyen PDF
- Analysis of sonar dipping regimes by analytical means https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.vandermerwe PDF
- Passive sonar sensor placement for undersea surveillance https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.weinberg PDF
- A systems approach to quantifying experience in cross-functional collaboration to improve strategic thinking in the national intelligence community https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M01.young PDF
M2. Simulation modelling and analysis
Session Organisers: Hasan Turan and Honglei Xu
- SWAR: Evaluating the effect of distributed communication approaches on application effectiveness https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.balasoiu PDF
- A foundational framework for generative simulation models: pathway to generative digital twins for supply chain (INVITED SPEAKER) https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.chotaliya PDF
- DesRail: a new discrete-event-simulation library for high-performance rail network simulations https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.corry PDF
- Modelling performance of uncrewed autonomous system swarms against directed energy weapon systems https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.hock PDF
- ARES: Aerial Response and Engagement Simulator https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.honhaga PDF
- Investigating the influence of disease spillover between feral and domestic pigs in ASF outbreaks using AADIS https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.oberin PDF
- An agent-based simulation model for defence workforce planning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.rogers PDF
- Improving adoption of quantum vector annealing in supply chains https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.rogersd PDF
- Dynamics and stability of milling behaviour under perturbation https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.smith PDF
- SCOPE: An integrated early warning system for combat casualty prediction https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.tiong PDF
- Strategic adversarial analysis of a game theory security model https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M02.wong PDF
M3. AI for Optimization: Methodologies and Applications
Session Organisers: Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi and Reena Kapoor
- Minimising ergonomic impact in automated workspaces through reinforcement learning https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M03.garciaflores PDF
- Using markerless motion capture to identify unsuitable static body postures during work activities https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M03.harrison PDF
- A CUDA-optimised key frame extraction for biometric labelling in dairy cattle identification https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M03.hasan PDF
- Joint optimisation of app data caching and computation offloading in edge computing https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim2025.M03.raina PDF